Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 43.303355 47.582858 52.396832 58.278654 65.364747 73.753907 84.640305
2025-06-22 37.652098 42.978909 49.393152 57.883372 69.157354 84.161399 106.741537
2025-06-29 33.601227 39.211354 46.245529 56.033636 69.897560 89.957496 123.892695
2025-07-06 30.479801 36.107210 43.362970 53.826224 69.375266 93.400793 138.298520
2025-07-13 29.724644 35.893767 44.140818 56.613961 76.430779 110.167881 184.267472
2025-07-20 28.192554 34.465334 43.050775 56.457653 78.776792 119.611787 222.118223
2025-07-27 27.795693 34.520462 44.010200 59.475273 86.946911 142.862694 318.607956
2025-08-03 26.925278 33.820526 43.769566 60.508809 91.786044 161.376185 434.063121
2025-08-10 25.925110 32.849996 43.016202 60.560260 94.731711 176.896178 580.444990
2025-08-17 24.624641 31.355169 41.332870 58.803219 93.668772 181.579489 687.800689
2025-08-24 23.423861 29.941478 39.678456 56.926223 92.034236 184.149010 799.881063
2025-08-31 23.029199 29.701376 39.850407 58.328195 97.783727 212.343149 1443.758158
2025-09-07 22.367690 29.148847 39.683427 59.503432 104.419232 253.985942 5230.732835
2025-09-14 21.458287 28.167340 38.746191 59.126106 107.411598 287.248650 NaN
2025-09-21 20.379033 26.852313 37.139585 57.209245 105.928603 299.592516 NaN
2025-09-28 19.336433 25.539038 35.444664 54.924369 102.953464 302.341703 NaN
2025-10-05 19.221693 25.676412 36.230701 57.810307 115.370798 419.963748 NaN
2025-10-12 18.647603 25.042460 35.616532 57.648401 118.797821 491.351874 NaN
2025-10-19 18.578217 25.217358 36.447009 60.776000 134.360547 780.255995 NaN
2025-10-26 18.230845 24.912087 36.376076 61.848125 143.535881 1130.382309 NaN
2025-11-02 17.781152 24.411463 35.903215 61.901509 148.969897 1563.137988 NaN
2025-11-09 17.138854 23.558826 34.715841 60.079106 146.032979 1678.785436 NaN
2025-11-16 16.519886 22.723708 33.521223 58.133785 142.102767 1725.120682 NaN